A death Pakistan can ill afford By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The killing of Baloch nationalist leader
Nawab Akbar Bugti, a prominent politician who served
many times in top government positions, at the hands
of Pakistani security agencies on the weekend will
ignite the movement for a "free Balochistan".

At the same time, it deals a powerful blow from the
Pakistani military establishment against President
General Pervez Musharraf for him to step down.

Bugti, 79, was killed in a large-scale battle in
Balochistan, where nationalists have been battling for
years to secure a better deal for themselves in the
energy-rich province, if not independence from
Islamabad.

Bugti, a former chief minister of Balochistan, went
underground this year to join the campaign against an
infrastructure program, including key pipelines for
the gas industry. In response, the central government
has considerably stepped up its military presence in
the sensitive province, which borders Iran and
Afghanistan.

Bugti, who has frequently demanded the withdrawal of
security forces from the province, was killed in his
cave hideout along with some male members of his
family. Protests immediately spread throughout the
region, a curfew was imposed and a strike was to be
called on Monday.

Quetta, the provincial capital, was still cut off on
Monday as the main roads into and out of the city were
blocked by protesters. All flights from Quetta to
Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad were also canceled.

Contacts in Pakistan's security apparatus tell Asia
Times Online that military intelligence, which was
responsible for supervising military operations in
Balochistan, had known the location of Bugti's hideout
for a long time. Their dispatches to the chief of army
staff - Musharraf - kept him informed of all
developments, including Bugti's serious illness two
months ago.

Apparently, Musharraf directed that Bugti be isolated
rather than killed as he did not want him to be turned
into a martyr. He reasoned it would be better to have
Bugti on the run than the clamor for a Baloch nation
being intensified.

News of Bugti's death, therefore, not only inflamed
Balochis, but caught the army's top brass by surprise.
They are now bracing for a spurt in nationalist
activities in Balochistan.

For Musharraf, the killing, which can only be
interpreted as being deliberate and against his
orders, sends a powerful message from elements in the
army that all is not well in the barracks. There have
been rumors of coup plot for some while. The general
is unlikely to step down. Rather, he will hit back at
those undermining him.

Already, protests over Bugti's death have spread to
the port city of Karachi, where a red alert has been
declared.

On Sunday, the influential six-party religious
alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), staged a
public gathering in Karachi against proposed
amendments to rape laws, which activists say gives too
much power to law-enforcement agencies.

The MMA, however, sees the proposed amendments as part
of a Western-inspired (US) agenda to remove elements
of sharia (Islamic) law from the constitution.

The leading opposition party, the Pakistan People's
Party Parliamentarian (PPPP), led by former premier
Benazir Bhutto, has now also sided against the bill.

The Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy,
comprising the PPPP and the Pakistan Muslim League led
by former premier Nawaz Sharif, had distanced itself
from the MMA's agitations over the bill.

But Bugti's death has washed away all these
differences and the alliance joined the MMA in its
Karachi rally. It was in essence convened against the
women's bill, but it soon turned into a rally
condemning Bugti's killing and Musharraf.

The incident comes at a time when the opposition is
agitating for a no-confidence motion against Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz in parliament. With their
newfound spirit of cooperation, this effort - and
their general anti-Musharraf campaign - will
intensify.

'War on terror' interrupted
Bugti's killing is likely to impact US Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI) operations in Balochistan,
which has become a strategic back yard for the
Taliban.

Musharraf is expected to stop the FBI's activities
immediately, leaving his relations with the US even
further strained. Musharraf is due to meet President
George W Bush in Washington next month at an important
stage in the "war on terror".

Some seven US delegations have been sent to Pakistan
since Bush visited the country a few months ago. Each
delegation delivered a strong reminder about
Pakistan's role in the "war on terror" and how
Washington supported - both in spirit and tangibly -
the military-democratic government.

Pakistan has consistently drawn criticism for not
doing enough to root out al-Qaeda and Taliban
fugitives on its soil, and for the widespread support
that the Taliban receives in the tribal areas of North
and South Waziristan in North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP), and Balochistan.

This criticism has intensified in recent months as the
Taliban go from strength to strength, waging their
fiercest campaign since being ousted in 2001.

Contacts told Asia Times Online they expected that
very soon the Taliban would announce the revival of
the "Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan" in that
country's southwest, from where a countrywide
offensive will be staged.

For Washington, this would mean a total failure in
Afghanistan - and Pakistan in large part would be held
to blame. This is because the US has based much of its
strategy on information fed to it by the Pakistani
establishment.

For example, coalition forces believed that the
Taliban's spring offensive would begin from Khost,
Paktia, Paktika and Kunar, as these areas are close to
the Waziristan tribal areas.

In fact, it was launched from southwestern Afghanistan
- Zabul, Kandahar, Orzgan, Helmand etc, and
Balochistan, not NWFP, is the Taliban's strategic back
yard in Pakistan.

Musharraf was obviously stung by the criticism from
the US and placed his own military intelligence at the
head of affairs, curtailing the role of the powerful
Inter-Services Intelligence.

However, this was not the end of his embarrassment.

This month, FBI operators met with Pakistani officials
and with the help of law-enforcement agencies
conducted massive raids in which a large number of
Taliban were arrested. A guarded estimate suggests as
many as 300, and many of them were in Quetta and its
surrounds, as well as towns on the border with
Afghanistan.

It has emerged that during an earlier exchange of
notes between Pakistani intelligence organizations and
the US, American officials named a top retired
Pakistani army official as orchestrating the Taliban's
strategies. The implication was that this was done
with the tacit approval of the Pakistani
establishment.

Musharraf ordered an investigation in which a few top
clerics associated with the MMA based in Balochistan
were probed. These clerics traveled to Karachi, and at
some point met with a senior official at the US
consulate in Karachi.

Pakistani intelligence suspects that information
leaked from this channel was then presented to
Pakistan, which had no option but to launch the
massive operation in Balochistan.

Musharraf certainly has some explaining to do in
Washington. There are strong rumors from Washington
that the Americans would welcome a "coup" against
Musharraf, with the hope that his replacement would be
more effective in the "war on terror".

This anti-Musharraf feeling finds resonance on the
home front. There are growing calls in the military
ranks - and even in his cabinet - for him to step
down.

With Bugti's death, the united - for now at least -
opposition will exploit the situation to the full.