Once again high drama ended with a whimper in Pakistan, our alter ego and bete noire. The Zardari-Nawaz Sharif duel camouflages yet another sordid deal between the US and  Pakistan's military top brass. The latter are on the way to brokering a deal between the new US regime and the Taliban, the "moderate" Taliban as Obama calls them to save his face. Dipanjan Rai Chaudhuri writes.

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Feudal-military-orthodox combine

None of this will change the condition of the people of Pakistan, the stagnation, unemployment, poverty, disease, and perennial oppression by religious orthodoxy.

Considering the decade from 1997 to 2007, the percentage of the labour force in agriculture remained stagnant at 41%, that in manufacture changed from 10¹/₂ to 13%, and that in "others" from 42% to 40¹/₂. The official rate of unemployment was 6% in 1997 and 2006, and registered 5¹/₂ in 2007. (see Note 1)

Some pig iron is produced but practically no steel. The Pakistan Steel Mills was completed only in 1985, in the public sector. Its performance became a subject for political bickering and Gen Musharaf privatised it in 2006, but the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry struck down the privatisation decree on August 8, 2008. (see Note 2) Mining is mainly for limestone, salt and gypsum. A little coal is mined and some crude oil and natural gas. Urea is the only significant chemical produced. There is no machine building industry to speak of. The main exports are cotton (raw), cotton(yarn and thread) and cotton(cloth), with some rice and leather.

All government and opposition parties and politicians are of and for the landlords.  When Gen Musharaf came to power, his prime minister was a landlord, the chief ministers of Sind, Punjab and Baluchistan were landlords. According to an estimate presented by "Awami Manshoor" of Karachi in August, 2003, 7% of the landowners held 40% of the land. These landlords, zamindars and jagirdars in the Punjab, the wadera in Sind, sardars in Baluchistan and the khawaneen in the NWFP, had originally obtained the lands from the colonial masters, for services rendered.

The religious orthodoxy is squarely allied with the landlords. The so-called "reforms" of Gen Ayub Khan and Premier Z A Bhutto had the comical upper limits of 500 (later 100) acres for irrigated and 1000 acres for unirrigated land, easily circumvented, too. People used the exemption clause for gardens and hunting grounds or just joined the ruling party. Even such ineffectual "reforms" were stopped by a religious sharia court from March 23, 1990.

The Army is itself a great economic power, with an empire worth ₤ 10 billion. It occupies 12 million acres of public land, including 12% of all agricultural land, and owns 7% of all private assets, controlling through 5 secret conglomerates ⅓ of all heavy manufacturing. It is present everywhere, from fertiliser and cement factories to construction work, dairy farms, cornflakes companies and street corner petrol pumps, and even banks, insurance and universities (see Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, Military Incorporated : Inside Pakistan's Military Economy). The Army is a bad landlord, its oppression of the tenant-cultivators in the Okara military farms has been condemned.

The most reactionary factions of the feudal-orthodox power and the Army, two great enemies of the peoples of Pakistan, in collusion with the CIA, set up the Taliban to fight the Russians in Afghanistan, and are the main patrons of the Pakistan-based terrorists. The Taliban developed into a power by itself and its interests in controlling Afghanistan and the Pashtun lands at the Pak-Afghan border clashed with those of the US. Now, the Taliban are well set to make a bid for Pakistan, still standing squarely on the two pillars of the feudal-orthodox combine and the Army, and Mr Barak Obama has no option apart from continuous blood-letting and the return of body bags to the US on the one hand and buying peace with the Taliban on the other. The Taliban, too, has little choice.

US domination

In fact, no power which aspires to rule Pakistan can ignore the reality of an abject economic and military dependence on the US and its allies.

The US is the main export market while China is first among the sources of imports. External Debt has the economy by the throat. In 1997 it was 49% of the GNI. When Nawaz Sharif left, it was 50%. In 1999, it reached 54%. A $ 10 billion aid package from the US, $1  billion write-off of loans by foreign governments and  $ 6 billion privatisation proceeds have brought external debt down to 28% of the GNI in 2007. But new loans are just repaying older ones -- between 1990 and 1999, 77% of gross loan receipts were used for debt service. This figure rose to 83% in 2005-06.

Both US and stooges and the Taliban are enemies  

Even when the Taliban and the terrorists take up a shrill anti US stance, they remain the most reactionary defenders of feudalism and a naked anti female patriarchy and a determined enemy of the peoples of Pakistan.  While one must unequivocally oppose and condemn the US violation of Pakistani sovereignty and air space by its military units and now unmanned drones, whosoever be the target, Taliban or Al Qaida, and must criticise the capitulation of successive Pakistani governments to these violations, one cannot but oppose the Taliban who have their own agenda of subjugating the peoples of Pakistan. The situation has similarities with Iran where consistent opposition to US bullying must not carry over to support for the feudal-orthodox enslavers of the Irani people. The Ayatollahs at least win elections. The extreme fundamentalist lobbies in Pakistan are always rejected at the polls except for the NWFP border region.

Some trade union work is again being undertaken, and there are movements against authoritarian decisions (like the lawyers' movements). There is the Baloch people's struggle for self-determination. But, overall, the plight of the peoples of Pakistan continues. This arises from their lack of an organised and united struggle against imperialism and feudalism. The Communists have been riven by ideological confusion and splits because of dependence on the political centres in Moscow and Beijing. In 1995, the CMKP, the Communist Mazdoor Kisan Party was formed by the unification of the old CPP, the Communist Party of Pakistan, dating from 1948 and the Rawalpindi Conspiracy case, and the MKP, formed in 1970 as a Maoist party, which carried out a guerrilla war against feudalism in the valley of Hashtnagar in 1970, led by Major Ishaq Muhammed, but at present, there is again a CPP, a MKP and a CMKP. There is also a Fourth International style LPP, Labour Party Pakistan. Needless to say, all these parties (and others not mentioned here) are fighting to organise the people against heavy odds and often under severe repression.

The peoples of India are waiting anxiously for the unfolding of an effective struggle of the peoples of Pakistan to throw out feudalism and the US imperialists and its stooges in Islamabad.

Note 1:

Between 1997 and 2007, the percentage from agriculture in the Gross National Income, GNI, fell from 27% to 20%, that from manufacture rose from 23¹/₂ to 27%, and that from services rose from 50% to 54%. A little change, but no evidence for dynamism in the economy. Data on the sectoral break-up of employment (see text) underlines the stagnation. (These and the other economic data given above are from the ADB website.}

Note 2:

The CJ had been suspended by Gen Musharaf on March 9, 2007 (and other judges), but the Supreme Court had reinstated him on July 20, 2007, an act which was ignored by the General and by President Zardari till the recent turmoil forced the latter to re-instate the CJ. It may be noted that anticipation of a declaration by the CJ and the Court that Gen Musharaf's re-election as President was unconstitutional led to the General's suspension of the constitution and declaration of an emergency (and the beginning of his end). In the present turmoil the Army supported the re-instatement of the CJ.