The South Asian: Waiting on Mr. Nepal

June 23, 2009

Waiting on Mr. Nepal

This article by Kanak Mani Dixit discusses the follies and faults of the Nepali government, the brazen attempt by the Maoists to "capture the state" and the problems of the opposition.

Amidst the indignity of Madhav Kumar Nepal’s inability to complete his cabinet nearly a month after taking over as prime minister, for the sake of perspective let us remember how society was saved from the Maoist precipice on the night of May 3. Looking ahead, one must also consider the danger of a right-wing surge that takes advantage of the continuing absence of state administration and deepening lawlessness.

The context of the Maoists´ departure from the government cannot be forgotten. After nine months of poor statecraft, coarse language, absence of accountability, unwillingness to push the constitution-writing, and willingness to maintain their private combatant force intact, it was the attempt to break the chain of command in the national army that unravelled the government. That attempt brought the entire political firmanent together to petition President Ram Baran Yadav, who decided to annul the unilateral decision by the Maoists in cabinet to sack COAS Rookmangud Katawal.

Even as Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal submitted to parliamentary practice and resigned after having lost his majority, the ´Shaktikhor training video´ was leaked to the press. Whoever made it available, the video exposed the worst of Maoist intentions on their way to ´state capture´ – winning elections by breaking limbs, diverting state funds to buy arms, ideologically infiltrating the military, and misrepresenting matters to claim nearly 20,000 combatants in place of 7-8000.

Though having come to power through the ballot, the Maoist intention seemed hardly to help create a pluralistic ´new Nepal´. Nine months into the government, the party was well on its way to consolidating its hold over society and creating facts on the ground that would have delivered a geopolitical fait accompli by the time the monsoon ended. The outer form would have been democratic, but the plan was to dominate the populace for years to come, utilizing a mix of money, state power and threat of violence.

The Maoists seem to have miscalculated the fears that were to be unleashed once their adventurism touched the national army, and also that New Delhi would go into overdrive on this one. The Nepal Army did conduct a dirty war during the conflict period, and accountability and justice must be sought for excesses committed. That is a separate campaign, not to be confused with the Maoist attempts to shake the military´s foundations as a way of achieving ´state capture´. Through strident repetition, the Maoists seek to create the impression that their goal vis-à-vis the army was only to ensure ´civilian supremacy´. As for the President´s action, the fact that the matter is before the Supreme Court is irrevelant for a party used to having its way with the fist.

Party folly

Despite the extreme rhetoric, one hopes that the various Maoist factions have understood the pitfalls of demagougry in the open society that they have chosen to enter. Indeed, an all-party national unity government led by the Maoists as the largest party in the Constitutent Assembly is the only alternative if the UML-Congress-Madhesi coalition fails to stick.

The nine-month Maoist-led coalition was an opportunistic alliance of leaders (particularly the CPN-UML and the MJF) who joined the Maoists to fulfill personal aspirations. In that sense, the proposed coalition headed by Mr. Nepal is much more ´natural´, a coming together of the democratically inclined who do not espouse violence. (To recall: the Maoists have yet to formally and publicly renounce violence.)

Theoretically, therefore, the present government has the possibility of correcting Maoist excess, motivating the bureaucracy and police, and leading the constitution-drafting. Most importantly, it also has duty to work toward disbanding of the cantonments and bring the peace process to a closure (in a way that the Maoist leadership is not humilitated). For how can we think of writing a democratic constituton when the Maoists still have their combatant force?

But the government of Mr. Nepal has had a shaky start to say the least. Girija Prasad Koirala’s nepostistic selection of his daughter to lead the Nepali Congress in the government was a devastating blow, considering that the lady had been openly consorting with the Maoist leaders during the COAS episode. But even more distressing was the situation over at the CPN (UML), where Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal has proved a reluctant supporter of his own party in government leadership.

Mr. Nepal of course lost the April 2008 elections, but his ability as an essential facilitator was recognized by the Maoists themselves when they proposed his name to head the Constituent Assembly’s principal drafting committee. But willingly or unwillingly, the prime minister has by now padded his humongous and unwieldy cabinet with losers as well as nominees who came from the proportional representation stream.

Neither were initial pronouncements the kind that would add confidence. Hardly had he taken his oath of office, Prime Minister Nepal announced premptorily that the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) would not be extended beyond three months because for having meddled in political affairs. While the timidity of OHCHR can be critiqued, this is hardly the time to bid goodbye to the agency. And there was Defence Minister Bidya Devi Bhandari in early June expressing the patent untruth that ‘integration’ of the Maoist combatants was not a part of the peace agreement.

Meanwhile, the Maoists seek to paint the Nepal´s cabinet as anointed by India, seeking to weaken its credibility. In this, they conveniently forget their own abject genuflections toward New Delhi while in and out of power. Besides challenging the presidential move and calling for ´civilian supremacy´, the third leg of the Maoist strategy in opposition is to adopt the ultra-nationalist, anti-India stance. But they forget that this is not 1960 and Pushpa Kamal Dahal is not Mahendra, and the tool of ultra-nationalism is no longer as sharp as it was.

It is indeed true that Nepal has become a trouble spot where Indian bureaucrats and politicians wade in to ‘set things right’, and lo and behold South Block´s Shiv Shankar Menon alights at the airport on Saturday. But more than the others, it is the Maoists who seem to crave for India´s attention, forever conducting antics to attract South Block over.

Rightist danger

Far from being a responsible opposition, the Maoist party today acts like a wounded carnivore, one that has been deprived of its all-consuming need for state power. They would indeed prefer a binary evolution where their left extremism generates a rightward reaction. This would weaken the left-liberal, social-democratic centre of Nepali politics, which would be to the Maoists´ ultimate advantage.

The right wing would rise with support of a large section of Kathmandu Valley power elites, who have always begrudged the UML and the Nepali Congress for having reached out to the Maoists which led to the 12-point agreement. Then there would be the cultural conservatives, members of the royalist brigade, and vainglorous elements within the military, who have today been made powerful beyond their wildest dreams thanks to the Maoist adventurism. There may even be attempts to use the incipient presidency for the insidious purpose, at a time when it has not gathered adequate institutional strength to withstand forces bent on misappropriating it.

Despite the extreme rhetoric, one hopes that the various Maoist factions have understood the pitfalls of demagoguery in the open society that they have chosen to enter. Indeed, an all-party national unity government led by the Maoists as the largest party in the Constitutent Assembly is the only alternative if the UML-Congress-Madhesi coalition fails to stick.

And therein lies the rub - politicians unable to understand the value of the prize they have been handed, in order to prove their worth to the citizens of Nepal. Mr. Nepal, Mr. Koirala and Mr. Bijay Kumar Gachhedhar are asked to work diligently to deliver peace, governance, development, reconstruction, rehabilitation, disbandment of the cantonments and, finally, a constittuion to the people.

If the three fail, we will have to turn to an all-party national unity government in the hope that the Maoists who will lead it are more restrained. But never a ´Bangladesh formula´, where the internationals and the power elites band together to foist a civilian army-backed administration on the people. To keep all unpalatable formulas at bay, one can only hope that despite its abysmal start, Mr. Nepal´s government will be able to stabilise itself, and thereafter stabilise Nepali society.

Posted by collective at June 23, 2009 10:43 AM

Comments

ARCHIVED ARTICLES