Ravinder Singh forwards a note claiming that 3500 died owing to global warming in the EU and asks what the implications are for India.

Reuters has not disclosed Nicholas Stern reported severe heat wave in 2003 that resulted in 35000 casualties in EU and caused $15b agricultural loss. But most glaring lapse was his ignorance of Mississippi flooding of 1993 and Katrina damage last year in USA.

China too has very long river basins like Mississippi in Yangtze and others that are snow fed therefore severe flooding and draught shall affect China much more after few decades.    

I am of the view that Developed Countries who have huge glacial resources shall suffer extreme weather conditions, floods and environment damage than actually admitted. For example intensity of Mississippi like floods could double and become more frequent.

In 2003 India received record food production and best well distributed monsoon when Europe suffered the most.

Reuters has also failed to report G-8 and developed countries were reluctant to support environ technologies or have supported unviable or ineffective technologies through aid agencies. 

Carbon Dioxide level in atmosphere is 430 ppm and growing at a rate of 4 ppm every year and it was reported could go to 600 ppm or more by the end of this century will result in 2-3 degree rise in average temperature. As an inventor the level of 600 ppm shall reach much earlier than imagined, 40% to 50% of world’s population does not use fossil fuels and another 20% to 30% population consume very little fossil or non-renewable energy.

India did achieve considerable success in steel, cement and aluminum industries in reducing energy consumption but in most critical power, agriculture and domestic sector progress is very unsatisfactory- as an inventor I can say very little has been achieved.

It is generally perceived that Indian energy consumption per billion-dollar GDP is 4-5 times higher but India produces low technology products so energy consumption is high.

Economist routinely talks of carbon dioxide capture and hydrogen technologies but have not elaborated or disclosed any technology that captures carbon dioxide and produces hydrogen without energy consumption- these are all in development phase and not proven yet.

CDM procedures are very complicated reduction of 12 million tons of Carbon Dioxide is not a significant achievement in India and only a few countries are seriously implementing energy reduction goals.

Germany offered to reduce by 30% carbon dioxide emission over 1991 level by 2020 and went on reduce it to 40% if other EU countries reach 30% reduction targets.

These are certainly heartening developments but as I said earlier it will be far less than increase in energy use by developing countries.

The global warming damage in India due to glacial melting shall affect 20% of Indian geographical area and glacial water loss could be say 100 BCM (6% of surface water) that is released gradually during heat wave and sustain life presently is exactly the similar amount of water wasted due to mismanagement in river basins. Hydro storage dams shall come up in coming decades in Nepal and rest of Himalayan belt to largely offset the loss. But most developed countries have already exploited most of their water resources.

Crop loss is not a big issue for Indian farm yields are very low due poor management reasons.

But crop yields have peaked in G-8 countries that are likely to suffer much more from extreme weather conditions for they have little ground water irrigation system that India has in over 20 million tube-wells. Occurrence of diseases shall not go up when it is already very high due to poor health care but as a inventor I must say heat waves shall affect people but it will also kill mosquitoes the vector spreading malaria and such diseases and provide annual break in malaria and disease cycles. 

Rise of seawater too shall harm developed countries most that have hundreds of big coastal cities.

I must say that economic loss to developed countries shall be severe compared to India and most developing countries that are used to weather extremes.

I did not believe 35,000 people died due to heat waves in Europe in 2003 and on being asked Nicholas Stern confirmed the figure.

Global warming is indeed a serious challenge to people of this planet who should collectively address the issues and developed countries that could afford to pay for energy technologies may double contributions in funding and developing energy technologies.

Ravinder Singh December2006

Corruptionfree04@yahoo.com

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DEL263588.htm

India will suffer most due to climate change-Stern

06 Dec 2006 13:51:49 GMT

Source: Reuters

By Nita Bhalla

NEW DELHI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - India is likely to suffer more than most countries as a result of climate change, with poor agricultural output, more natural disasters and increased deaths due to higher occurance of diseases, the author of an acclaimed report on global warning said on Wednesday.

Former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern's report on the economic impact of climate change said unchecked greenhouse gas emissions would see global temperatures rise by 2-3 degrees centrigrade in the next 50 years.

Speaking to Indian businessmen, Stern said the annual June-September monsoon rains, which India is heavily dependent on for its crop production, would impact the economy.

"There could be more variable starting dates (for the monsoon). There could be periods of much greater intensity and there could be quite extended periods of no rain. But it is likely to be disrupted," he said.

"It's clear India will suffer like the rest of the world, perhaps more that the rest of the world."

Experts estimate a temperature rise of between 2 and 3.5 degrees centigrade, would cost India a loss of between nine and 25 percent of total agricultural revenue. Agriculture makes up around 22 percent of India's gross domestic product.

Stern said temperature rises would also mean vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever spreading to higher altitude regions known for being free of mosquitoes.

As a result, there was a likelihood of more deaths that would result in lower productivity, he said.

The head of Britain's Economic Service said the melting of Himalayan glaciers would mean neighbouring Bangladesh could experience serious floods as a result of rising sea levels, sparking mass migration across the border into India.

He said the flow of water from the glaciers would be curtailed during India's dry season and would have "serious consequences".

Experts say melting glaciers will affect one-sixth of the world's population residing mainly in the Indian subcontinent. India's Ganga river receives 70 percent of its summer water flow from the Himalayan glaciers and sustains over 500 million people.

Stern said India was making progress in adapting to the challenges faced in curbing emissions and investing in clean development mechanisms. But climate change was an inequitable process in which rich nations had to take the burden of responsibility, he said.

"This is a doubly inequitable process as it's the rich countries who are responsible for 75 percent of the greenhouse gases that are up there and it's the poor countries that will be hit earliest and hardest," he said.

"All countries must be involved, but equity demands that the rich countries bear the big majority of the cost."